The point in the video on a unique deal is valid, as is the unspoken fact this will help all countries involved, so we all need to compromise.
Despite political positions on both sides, not least drafting UK legislation to change the Brexit deal, talks are continuing. They are important for everyone involved, although the balance is not as often portrayed.
The EU does export more to the UK than we do the EU, a trading deficit of around £70 billion. Even so, when this is judged against the total size of the two economies, the hit to the UK will be far greater.
Business within the EU is more important to them than a UK deal, or one with any nation. Where decisions have an affect on both, preserving almost 4 trillion Euros of trade within the single market will take precedence.
In a perfect world, we want our goods and services to flow as freely as they did before Brexit. That is not going to happen, there will be changes and extra red tape but the extent of discord is in our own hands.
The more we fail to guarantee standards and fair competition, the greater the perceived threat to the way the EU single market works. Lack of alignment could also bring unwanted dangers for British business.
Friction in trading arrangements has a cost, new requirements for product analysis, or labelling, component shortages, or extra documentation. Costs will equally accrue from the process of importing and exporting.
Crossing The Channel
There is little doubt that the need for customs and security declarations will increase from 1st January. New duties and tariffs are probable, we don’t know the extent of barriers, whether we will have a deal, or just become a third country.
Temporary exports appear clearer, in so far as the ATA carnet system is already in place and no alternatives have come to light. Nothing is certain at present but carnet use into and from Europe looks likely.
This will bring a degree of admin and cost but the system is proven and reliable. A carnet for the EU will also give access across the whole market and allows for use more than once during a 12 month period.
A degree of stability when not knowing what will happen is half the problem for business, brinkmanship doesn’t build solutions.
Settling The Future
January 1 2021 will bring change, on customs and regulatory procedures, along with a myriad of detail for individual businesses.
Failure to strike a new trade deal will be exactly that but not allowing time to plan and act is an equal issue. Not least with the unwanted addition of coronavirus, which will make implementing change harder.
To what extent the Brexit dream of trading freely across the world comes to fruition remains to be seen. UK businesses will however still want to trade with Europe and have no wish to be hamstrung.