The smiles could suggest we will draw closer in the year to come but political reality may put debate on hold.
Ursula von der Leyen recently stated that we all goofed up Brexit and the UK should rejoin the EU. She mentioned the Windsor agreement on Northern Ireland last June, stating this was “a new beginning for old friends”.
An invitation from the EU leader, although the UK’s Prime Minster did not feel the same, saying we should focus on the freedoms of Brexit.
A few days later, the UK’s opposition leader took an odd stance. Sir Keir Starmer insisting the government was the problem due to “failing to realise the possibilities of Brexit” and there was no case for rejoining the EU.
Winning Over Voters
Along with their core views, Richi Sunak focused on Brexit bringing better access to medication and improved animal welfare, Ursula von der Leyen on democratic values and Keir Starmer on praising Margaret Thatcher.
Business and the economy didn’t feature much in our leaders recent statements. Their minds were on elections, Ursula von der Leyen still reeling from Geert Wilders win in Holland, UK politicians focused on the year ahead.
Political minds are on the floating voter, to support anti-nationalism within the EU, or one of the major parties in the UK. Voting can be tribal and many people do not change sides but everyone wants those who will.
Policy On The Back Foot
More than 20 Conservative MPs have written to Rishi Sunak, urging him not to renege on Britain’s human rights commitments in his bid to remove asylum seekers. Another group have written in to promote the opposite.
Ursula von der Leyen has taken flack for such an open stance and Keir Starmer’s canonization of Margaret Thatcher has not overjoyed all in the Labour party.
These party views are not being given much time, when the present is about votes to come. Neither are serious policies likely to be on the agenda, whether they relate to business needs, exports, or our relationship with the EU.
Parliament defines the period of heightened sensitivity to policy launches, or “purdah” as between the announcement of a general election and the election taking place. This time, the period may be longer.
Brexit Changes On Hold
Anyone hoping to see Ursula von der Leyen’s suggestion become reality, or a significant move in the UK-EU relationship could be disappointed.
The government will continue to champion the success of Brexit and the opposition do not want the election to become another Brexit referendum. Both believe that setting changes aside is in their interest.
When the party manifestos emerge, the chance of either suggesting notable treaty, or status change is remote. One may be a little more positive on building a better relationship but in a fairly indistinct way.
We don’t know when the election will be, or the result. The later part of 2024 could suddenly see a different view but amendments take time.
Companies will continue to deal with the EU as they do now, ATA carnets for the EU will be required. Not that any of this is proving too much of a barrier, trade with the EU is faring better than many predicted.